A $99 4GB IPhone at Walmart In January

As I reported in my November 21st blog entry, “Finally?, for some, the 3G IPhone,” Walmart will start selling the IPhone December 28.

Now, you ask, why December 28, and not right now, in time for Christmas?

My answer in that blog:

“Perhaps just in time for the after Christmas sales?

$150 anyone?

$125 anyone?…”

Well, I think we may well have our answer.

Just like the CIA watches for heightened “chatter” on the “network” in its efforts to thwart terrorism, I monitor blogs, lots of them, and since Tuesday, December 2nd, the chatter has become a shout.

Based on the chatter, my prediction:

Within the next 30 days, Apple will introduce a $99 4GB IPhone.

At the original IPhone launch, the 4GB and the 8GB IPhones came out together, but Apple stopped selling the 4GB version a little bit later and the price of the 8GB was dropped.

The word now is that Apple has the ability to juice up the original 4GB design and lauch it again for $99.

While you cannot drive a lot of applications or store a lot of songs or videos with just 4GB, you will still get to carry around one cool looking phone — and anyway, who asks IPhone users how many horses they have under the hood?

Just think of it, you just came from Walmart and you are sitting at Borders with your latte or at Panera with your smoky Chipotle Chicken flatbread sandwich, and your IPhone is in front of you for all to admire.

They certainly don’t need to know it is the $99 4GB version.

The chatter?

On October 27, Apple Insider quoted Analyst Charlie Wolf of Needham Research as saying that since Apple has 2 million IPhones in inventory, Apple could well introduce a $99 IPhone.

Friday, the same site quoted analyst Shaw Wu of Kaufman Bros saying “”While we are not sure of exact timing, we think a $99 Apple-branded cell phone is inevitable… As we mentioned in our initiation report, we believe one of the key things Apple needs to do to drive broader iPhone adoption is to build a more complete product line like it has done with the iPod.”

The same day, Eric Zeman of Information Week noted that 300 million IPhone applications have been downloaded from the Apps Store and that suggests that a $99 IPhone could serve as a low end or entry phone, the 8GB as a midrange IPhone, and the 16GB IPhone could be positioned as a high end IPhone with a greater megapixel camera, flash, video and maybe even a memory boost to 32GB.

The definative site on all things Iphone is the Boy Genius Report which had long predicted that Walmart would sell the Iphone. The BGR was the site I quoted in the earlier blog when the news broke that Walmart had reached an agreement to sell Iphones on December 28.

On December 4 the BGR ran a piece suggesting that Walmart could be introducing the anticipated $99 4 GB IPhone. BGR did not, however, give complete credence to the tip noting that BGR’s tipster was not completely proven as solid and added “Don’t hate us if this doesn’t happen.”

Not surprisingly, according to the Beta News Walmart refused to either confirm or deny the rumor, but with analysts all in agreement that the evolution toward differentiated IPhones is inevitable and that a $99 IPhone will come at some point, the only question is whether it will come on December 28 at Walmart, or whether it will be announced at MacWorld January 6-9 at the Moscone Center in San Francisco.

My $1099 bet: there will be a $99 4GB IPhone introduced in the next month, but it will not launch at Walmart on December 28.

Walmart has positioned itself, trained its staff, and will be ready to pump out the $99 4GB IPhones the moment the iconic Steve Jobs announces it with his typical aplomb. (Assuming, of course, he doesn’t shrink away to nothing before then.)

I could imagine Jobs on stage in his turtleneck, the screen is illuminated, the number $99 appears, and at that very moment, Walmart employees begin pushing out crates of $99 IPhones to the floor.

Peter B Hayward

Copyright © 2008 Peter B. Hayward All Rights Reserved

A Maine Armchair Philosopher