A Maine Armchair Philosopher

Entries from January 2009

Kindle 2 debut: February 9 — $359

January 27, 2009 · 1 Comment

The New York Times reported today that Amazon has called a press conference on February 2nd, not its home town of Seattle, but in the media and financial center of the United States, New York. The NYT further determined that Jeff Bezos will host the event and on that basis, the NYT announced that the Kindle 2 will be unveiled that day. And the price will be the same as the current price for the Kindle 1, $359. I have been told by several sources that they have placed orders for the Kindle at that price “Expected to ship in 4 to 6 weeks.”

On October 3rd the Boy Genius Report had published what were said to be pictures of the new beast. It was then rumored that new Kindle would be released in early November. On October 23, however, Oprah endorsed the Kindle on her program and sales skyrocketed, apparently leaving Amazon with too few Kindle 1s or 2s for the stocking.

The announcement is being held in a location that Steve Jobs would love. The Morgan Library & Museum in New York houses one of the world’s greatest collections of artistic, literary, and musical works, from ancient times to the medieval and Renaissance periods to the present day.

Kind of like what the Kindle might become some day.

Peter B. Hayward

Copyright © 2009 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved

Join me for daily tweets at twitter.com/pbh444

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New Maine Unemployment Data; Where ARE We Going?

January 27, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Announced today:

Maine’s December unemployment rate jumped from 6.3% in November to 7%, an increase of 7 points.

In contrast, the December 2007 unemployment rate was 4.9%.

June 1992 was the last time Maine saw a 7% unemployment rate. Then, it took 5 1/2 years, until November 1996, for the rate to drop below 5%.

In December, the US unemployment rate was 7.2%, also a 16 year high.

Maine’s unemployment rate, 2008:

4.7% January
4.8% February
5.0% March
4.7% April
5.4% May
5.3% June
5.5% July
5.5% August
5.6% September
5.7% October
6.3% November
7.0% December

The five states with the highest December unemployment rates were Michigan (10.6%), Rhode Island (10%), South Carolina (9.5%), California (9.3%) and Nevada (9.1%). The full list with a link to historical data can be seen at the US Department of Labor site.

Nationally, more than half a million jobs were lost in December.

And the official US unemployment figures do not tell the full story. Economists argue that the rate should be adjusted to include those who want a full-time job but who can only find a part-time job and include jobless workers who want a job but are not actively seeking employment or not searching through the bureaus that report unemployment. With that adjustment, the “real” US unemployment rate in October would have been 11% and 14% in December.

In November, the New England Economic Partnership projected that Maine’s unemployment rate could be 8.7% by mid 2010. I make no prediction other than to note that 1) with today’s jump, Maine is much closer to 8.7% than we were in October, and, 2) the Federal government did not foresee the rapid unemployment jump as recently as October.

Are these jobs coming back?

Bruce Springsteen sang in My Home Town: “… foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain’t coming back.”

The reason many of the jobs can’t come back to a state or even to the US is that once the work has been shifted elsewhere, it is very hard to shift the work back.

The second reason many jobs can’t come back is that many are lost when the company closes down for good. When that happens, the company’s machinery, inventory, etc is sold, often at fire sale prices, and again the work goes elsewhere in the US or overseas.

For example, the 28 year old Brewer auto parts manufacturer ZF Lemforder has announced that it will close next year and 127 will lose their jobs. Production of those auto parts, if ever needed, will be done elsewhere in the US or the world.

Let’s assume the Maine economy turns around by December. Any company that went out of business cannot easily come back because the machinery and the plant, which may have been purchased years ago and is now completely paid for, is now gone. The hurdles to restart that or any new business are 1) to find financing, if possible, for plant, machinery, etc that then will cost much more, 2) to find and train a staff, and 3) to find a buyer for the product in an economy that has since shrunk.

This recession is different

This recession is different than all those recessions since the 30s. There are now many fewer good economic or business reasons for a company to be located in Maine, Michigan, Georgia, or even in the US. This has become a global economy with a global workforce.

For example, with a large part of Wal-mart’s goods being made overseas, and with Americans being willing to pay the salaries of those overseas workers because the goods they produce are cheaper, the recession and the unemployment cannot be turned around by consumption of foreign goods.

Second, many economists believe there has been a paradigm shift over the last 8 months. Americans have started to fear for their economic well-being and have started to save when they can. Much of President Bush’s stimulus rebate payments went directly into savings or went to pay down credit card debt. Americans have also started to save by cutting back on spending. 2008 holiday sales plummeted, resulting in the worst holiday sales period in decades. Apparently people were husbanding their money in case they lost their jobs.

Can spending on infrastructure turn this recession around?

It is a widely held belief that the infrastructure job programs of the Roosevelt era helped turn around the nation’s unemployment problem and helped pull the US out of the depression. Forgotten is the fact that, by late 1936, economic indices were back at pre-depression levels while unemployment was still at 14%. Then in 1937, the economy tanked again and unemployment soared to 19%.

The US depression finally eased in 1940 with the massive government military spending and when the government subsidized the wages of workers in those industries. Thus, those industries were encouraged to hire and train even more workers and actually made a profit by doing so.

President Obama has pointed to President Eisenhower’s construction of the interstate highway system in the 50s as an example of the way to turn around the economy and its unemployment problems.

What those touting infrastructure forget is that the building of the interstate system in the 50s was largely a shovel job. Millions of less unskilled workers were hired to do much of the work. For example, 2,000 people worked 23 months to extend the Maine turnpike 66 miles from Portland to Augusta in 1954/55.

In contrast, major infrastructure work, such as the rebuilding of the southbound portion of I-295 or the building of the Waldo-Hancock Bridge are accomplished by highly skilled workers in much smaller numbers using high technology machinery.

You simply cannot put the average unemployed worker behind a 50 ton paving machine. Even with extensive training, that now-trained person would stand in line behind 100s of workers with extensive construction and heavy machinery experience.

How do we get out of the recession?

The key to getting out of this recession before it turns into a depression is to put people into jobs that give them new skills and into jobs that will last. Construction jobs do not last. Construction jobs do not produce goods that others can buy. Companies that produce goods are the key to the turn around, and training people to occupy those jobs is part of the answer.

Technology infrastructure such as immediately running fiber (not cable or wire) to every part of Maine is a good first step. Massively upgrading Maine’s cell networks, especially the GSM side, is a good second step since companies and employees need dependable communications across the entire state and not just along I-95 and the coast. We simply cannot depend on the GSM providers to do this given 1) their infighting and 2) the penalties the national carriers put on their own customers for extensively roaming on towers other than their own.

Finally, Maine needs to seriously consider creating a business tax free zone in southern Maine adjacent to I-95. It is true that arguments could be made for placing this zone in the County or Hancock/Washington, but the simple fact is that businesses will not haul raw material that deep into Maine, only to ship it out again. Such zones, if created in the County or Hancock/Washington, might be created with tax incentives favorable to attract businesses and work from Canada.

Finally, this recession simply CANNOT be turned around quickly. Careful thought must be put into what we want the nation (and Maine) to look like in 2010 or 2011, and we must do the spade work now, no matter how painful it may be, to get there from here.

Peter B. Hayward

Copyright © 2009 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved

Join me for daily tweets at twitter.com/pbh444

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Caroline Kennedy: Entitlement or Ability

January 22, 2009 · Leave a Comment

First published 1/22, 7:53 AM
Updated 1/23 3:10 PM

About 7 PM Wednesday nigh the New York Times tweeted: Caroline Kennedy had asked Governor David Paterson to withdraw her name from consideration for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

No further information was immediately offered and that is the beauty of twitter.com; news can be “moved across the wire” to normal people in the same way the AP moves news to the Press Herald and the New York Times.

Quoting unnamed sources, a subsequent NYT story said Kennedy was concerned with the health of her uncle, Senator Edward Kennedy, but various websites had suggested as early as Sunday that she was considering withdrawing because of poor public support.

Subsequently, denials of the story were made by people “close” to Kennedy and Paterson.

Finally, after midnight, the Times ran with Kennedy’s offical announcement that she had, indeed, asked Governor Paterson to withdraw her name for “personal reasons.”

Last week a Marist poll came out indicating that 40% of New York voters favored Mario Andrew Cuomo while 25% favored Kennedy. Kennedy’s number’s, in fact, had not changed from a Marist Poll a month ago when she was tied with Cuomo, while he increased from 25% to 40%.

A January 5 poll by Public Policy Polling revealed an even greater spread: 58% preferred Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy.

After the initial “WoW” factor of Kennedy’s entering the nomination race, New Yorkers stepped back and asked themselves who *is* this women and what does she have to offer us. And then probably, does she think she has a right to this seat?

Their thoughts probably ran along the lines that “if an unknown fifty-one year old with Kennedy’s resume had asked for the appointment, she would not have even made the news.”

After her request for the appointment, Kennedy did follow in Hillary Clinton’s foot steps and made forays into upstate New York which were well received. However, when Kennedy finally appeared before seasoned national journalists, Kennedy’s grasp of important issues she would face was questioned and her repeated hesitations and halts were enumerated and parodied.

The question of entitlement

Although the founding fathers made every attempt to make certain that American could never devolve into a monarchy, we, the people, appear to have developed an entrenched fascination with aristocracy of every stripe.

Of course we can have had our fascination with the movie stars of the 30s to 60s, in politics with the Adams, the Roosevelts, the Bushes, Clintons, the Doles and of course the Kennedys.

But there would be no fascination without a sense of entitlement.

1) A Kennedy family member has been in the Senate for all but two of the last fifty six years. With Senator Edward Kennedy’s time in the Senate perhaps coming to an end, maybe the family thought was that Caroline’s appointment might bridge any gap.

The two year gap came between JFK’s ascension to the Presidency and EMK’s election. JFK’s college roomate, Ben Smith II, was appointed to fill JFK’s open seat; he stepped down two years later when EMK turned 30, the minimum age to become a US senator.

Perhaps the same sense of entitlement is happening with the appointment of Biden’s chief of staff Edward Kaufman to Biden’s vacated seat until a special election in 2010. At that time, Biden’s son Beau should be back from Iraq and could run at the age of 31.

2) When running for election to the Senate, candidates are required to release a “10-part, publicly available report disclosing her financial assets, credit card debts, mortgages, book deals and the sources of any payments greater than $5,000 in the last three years.” When asked by the NYT if she would release these records while under public consideration for nomination, Kennedy demurred, informing the NYT that the records would be released only *after* she was actually appointed.

3) Mayor Michael Bloomberg: “Caroline Kennedy is a very experienced woman. She has worked very hard for the city. I can just tell you that she has made an enormous difference in New York City. ****And clearly, being part of the Kennedy family, she has had lots of exposure. Her uncle has been one of the best senators that we have had in an awful long time.****”

4) From the early Thursday AM NYT article: “Ms. Kennedy believed that the job was hers if she would accept it, the person said, but aides to Mr. Paterson would not comment on whether that was true.”

Update, Friday

1) Time reports reports that Ted Kennedy and his “camp” were quite upset that his niece’s people floated the excuse for her withdrawal as being her concern with his health. EMK felt this sent a message he was on death’s door.

2) CNN reported on Thursday that a source close to Paterson “had no intention of appointing Caroline Kennedy” and that “[t]he source told CNN that Paterson did not think Kennedy was ‘ready for prime time,” seemingly for the reasons I outlined above.

3) The New York Daily News suggested Kennedy’s personal problem involved tax issues on a nanny, the same “oversight,” if true, that derailed Zoe Baird’s nomination to be US Attorney General in 1993.

4) In contrast, the New York Post stated that the personal problem might be a marriage issue. Vanity Fair dissected a rumor pushed on Gawker.com that Kennedy has a “close friendship” with New York Times Publisher Arthur Sulzberger.

5) CBS news reported that her reason for dropping out was ***not her uncle’s health*** and noted cryptically that “ the reason Kennedy dropped out of contention truly is personal, and is something that only she and her immediate family are aware of.”

6) Finally, in a postmortem entitled “Senate bid by Caroline Kennedy started poorly, wobbled badly and finished in a chaotic mess,” the Daily News noted a souce close to the Kennedy family said at the begging of her bid “… it’s more of a family push than her own” and “When Kennedy finally had her formal sitdown with Paterson on Jan. 10 to discuss the job, her poll numbers were in free fall – and the writing was on the wall…”

Peter B. Hayward

Copyright © 2009 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved

Join me for daily tweets at twitter.com/pbh444

Categories: Caroline Kennedy
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Inaugural Speech: The “Skimmed” Version

January 20, 2009 · Leave a Comment

The tradition of abridging literary works goes back hundreds of years.

Thomas Jefferson took a pair of scissors to the Gospels in an attempt to return to what he believed were the true words of Jesus. The Jefferson Bible is still available at booksellers.

At another extreme, physician Thomas Bowdler edited, and beginning in 1807, published expurgated versions of Shakespeare’s plays with “those words and expressions are omitted which cannot with propriety be read aloud in a family.” His action gave us the word “bowdlerize.”

The versions may not be found in every bookstore, but are available online.

**************

I don’t know about you, but when I hear something, I might take away a bit here and a bit there, but I know that I probably missed a lot.

With big speeches like the State of the Union or President Bush’s Iraq ultimatum speech of March 18, 2008, I like to read the actual text, differentiating between the white meat and the red meat.

So it is that, with my typical helping of of hubris, I offer what I refer to as my “skimmed” version of President Barack Obama’s inaugural speech:

**************

.. I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors.

… At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the skill or vision of those in high office, but because we the people have remained faithful to the ideals of our forebears, and true to our founding documents.

So it has been. So it must be with this generation of Americans.

That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred.

Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age.

…Less measurable, but no less profound, is a sapping of confidence across our land; a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, that the next generation must lower its sights.

Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real, they are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this America: They will be met.

On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.

We remain a young nation, but in the words of scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things.

The time has come to reaffirm our enduring spirit; to choose our better history; to carry forward that precious gift, that noble idea, passed on from generation to generation: the God-given promise that all are equal, all are free and all deserve a chance to pursue their full measure of happiness.

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned.

Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted — for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.

On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics.

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given.

It must be earned.

Our journey has never been one of shortcuts or settling for less. It has not been the path for the faint-hearted, for those who prefer leisure over work, or seek only the pleasures of riches and fame.

Rather, it has been the risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things — some celebrated, but more often men and women obscure in their labor — who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom.

For us, they packed up their few worldly possessions and traveled across oceans in search of a new life. For us, they toiled in sweatshops and settled the West, endured the lash of the whip and plowed the hard earth.

For us, they fought and died in places Concord and Gettysburg; Normandy and Khe Sanh.

Time and again these men and women struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life.

They saw America as bigger than the sum of our individual ambitions; greater than all the differences of birth or wealth or faction.

This is the journey we continue today.

We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished.

But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions — that time has surely passed.

Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

For everywhere we look, there is work to be done.

The state of our economy calls for action: bold and swift. And we will act not only to create new jobs but to lay a new foundation for growth.

… Now, there are some who question the scale of our ambitions, who suggest that our system cannot tolerate too many big plans.

Their memories are short, for they have forgotten what this country has already done, what free men and women can achieve when imagination is joined to common purpose and necessity to courage.

What the cynics fail to understand is that the ground has shifted beneath them, that the stale political arguments that have consumed us for so long, no longer apply.

The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works, whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified.

Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end.

And those of us who manage the public’s [dollars] will be held to account, to spend wisely, reform bad habits, and do our business in the light of day, because only then can we restore the vital trust between a people and their government.

Nor is the question before us whether the market is a force for good or ill. Its power to generate wealth and expand freedom is unmatched.

But this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control. The nation cannot prosper long when it favors only the prosperous.

The success of our economy has always depended not just on the size of our gross domestic product, but on the reach of our prosperity; on the ability to extend opportunity to every willing heart — not out of charity, but because it is the surest route to our common good.

As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals.

Our founding fathers faced with perils that we can scarcely imagine, drafted a charter to assure the rule of law and the rights of man, a charter expanded by the blood of generations. Those ideals still light the world, and we will not give them up for expedience’s sake.

And so, to all other peoples and governments who are watching today, from the grandest capitals to the small village where my father was born: know that America is a friend of each nation and every man, woman and child who seeks a future of peace and dignity, and we are ready to lead once more.

Recall that earlier generations faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with the sturdy alliances and enduring convictions.

They understood that our power alone cannot protect us, nor does it entitle us to do as we please. Instead, they knew that our power grows through its prudent use. Our security emanates from the justness of our cause; the force of our example; the tempering qualities of humility and restraint.

We are the keepers of this legacy … We’ll begin to responsibly leave Iraq to its people and forge a hard- earned peace in Afghanistan.

… We will not apologize for our way of life nor will we waver in its defense.
And for those who seek to advance their aims by inducing terror and slaughtering innocents, we say to you now that, “Our spirit is stronger and cannot be broken. You cannot outlast us, and we will defeat you.”

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness.
We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus, and nonbelievers. We are shaped by every language and culture, drawn from every end of this Earth.

And because we have tasted the bitter swill of civil war and segregation and emerged from that dark chapter stronger and more united, we cannot help but believe that the old hatreds shall someday pass; that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve; that as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself; and that America must play its role in ushering in a new era of peace.

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect.

To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict or blame their society’s ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy.

To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history, but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.

To the people of poor nations, we pledge to work alongside you to make your farms flourish and let clean waters flow; to nourish starved bodies and feed hungry minds.

And to those nations like ours that enjoy relative plenty, we say we can no longer afford indifference to the suffering outside our borders, nor can we consume the world’s resources without regard to effect.

For the world has changed, and we must change with it.

As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains.

They have something to tell us, just as the fallen heroes who lie in Arlington whisper through the ages.

We honor them not only because they are guardians of our liberty, but because they embody the spirit of service: a willingness to find meaning in something greater than themselves.

And yet, at this moment, a moment that will define a generation, it is precisely this spirit that must inhabit us all.

For as much as government can do and must do, it is ultimately the faith and determination of the American people upon which this nation relies.

… Our challenges may be new, the instruments with which we meet them may be new, but those values upon which our success depends, honesty and hard work, courage and fair play, tolerance and curiosity, loyalty and patriotism — these things are old.

These things are true. They have been the quiet force of progress throughout our history.
What is demanded then is a return to these truths.

What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility — a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character than giving our all to a difficult task.

This is the price and the promise of citizenship.

This is the source of our confidence: the knowledge that God calls on us to shape an uncertain destiny.

This is the meaning of our liberty and our creed, why men and women and children of every race and every faith can join in celebration across this magnificent mall.

And why a man whose father less than 60 years ago might not have been served at a local restaurant can now stand before you to take a most sacred oath.

So let us mark this day in remembrance of who we are and how far we have traveled.

In the year of America’s birth, in the coldest of months, a small band of patriots huddled by nine campfires on the shores of an icy river.

The capital was abandoned. The enemy was advancing. The snow was stained with blood.

At a moment when the outcome of our revolution was most in doubt, the father of our nation ordered these words be read to the people:

“Let it be told to the future world that in the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive, that the city and the country, alarmed at one common danger, came forth to meet it.”

America, in the face of our common dangers, in this winter of our hardship, let us remember these timeless words; with hope and virtue, let us brave once more the icy currents, and endure what storms may come; let it be said by our children’s children that when we were tested we refused to let this journey end, that we did not turn back nor did we falter; and with eyes fixed on the horizon and God’s grace upon us, we carried forth that great gift of freedom and delivered it safely to future generations.

Thank you. God bless you. And God bless the United States of America.

**************

Peter B. Hayward

Join me for daily tweets at twitter.com/pbh444

Categories: Obama
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Text, Twitter the Inauguration? Maybe Not This Time

January 19, 2009 · Leave a Comment

Much has been made of tomorrow’s inauguration as being one of a new generation…not only did soon-to-be President Obama bring in millions of disenfranchised and new voters, but he ran on a message of inclusion and not one of divisiveness or entitlement.

What will happen legislatively, of course remains to be seen, but there can be no doubt that this inauguration will be a technological first.

Inauguration technology firsts: the first inauguration carried by telegraph was in 1845; captured by a movie camera, 1897; on radio, 1925; the first carried on TV, 1949, on color TV, 1961; and tomorrow’s inauguration is likely to be the first in which the event is planned to be shared instantly by tens of millions, perhaps hundreds of millions using social networking devices and sites.

Much has been made of the real possibility that the cell networks in D.C. might go down as the 2.5 million expected to be on the Mall and the millions more in D.C. attempt to voice, text and cam the event.

But little has been written about the fact that untold millions there are elsewhere are expecting to share their thoughts and emotions by tweeting the event on Twitter.com, and/or writing on social networks such as Facebook, Myspace, etc.

Even now, Twitter.com (where I am tweeting while I type) is slowing down and limiting activities, and an old time technology colleague who now works in the IT bowels of one of the social networking sites above says he is seeing an exponential increase in useage that, if it does not lessen, will GREATLY slow access tomorrow.

I sadly envisage millions on the Mall trying to text, cam or tweet, and being unable to do so, will repeatedly try, only to miss the raw and historic nature of the event.

Peter B. Hayward

Copyright © 2009 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved

Join me for daily tweets at twitter.com/pbh444

Categories: Facebook · Inauguration · Myspace · Obama · Text message · Tweet · cell phone · internet
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Goodbye Mr. Jobs?

January 16, 2009 · 1 Comment

Published Thursday, January 14, 8:37 AM
Updated Friday, January 15, 9:30 AM

Now that Macworld is over, the news has been released that Apple devotees have known for months but have not wanted to acknowledge — Steve Jobs is seriously ill.

Steve Jobs, the Chief Executive Officer of Apple, announced yesterday that he was leaving his position on a medical leave until at least June.

In December, Apple announced that Jobs would not make his customary keynote speech at Macworld Expo, the independent tradeshow/love fest that had been originally developed around the Mac computer. For at least a year, rumors abounded that Jobs was seriously ill as his weight had plummeted. At the June 2008 announcement of the 2nd generation IPhone, Jobs looked absolutely gaunt.

When the December announcement came that Jobs would not make the keynote speech at Macworld, Apple’s stock dropped, and just before Macworld opened, Apple made a new announcement that Job’s doctors (who presumably were the best and had been working on Jobs for years) suddenly found he suffered from a hormonal problem that caused the weight loss. Apple’s stock rebounded.

The Apple’s products — the Mac line of computers, the IPod line and the IPhone — have engendered a cult like following. I have to admit, I was a member of this cult. In 1984, I was led into a room at the University of Chicago with 10 other members of the staff of the Computation Center and told to sign a non disclosure statement by an Apple executive.

On the table in front of us was something covered with a silken cloth. After the forms where signed, and when the interminable pep talk was over, the cloth was removed and the original Mac was revealed. I was in love, and stayed in love with that funky square box until my latest one died on November 11 2006 (like someone quitting smoking, I know the date).

And the cult? When tech reviewers like David Pogue of the New York Times and Rob Pegoraro of the Washington Post have given less than stellar reviews to Apple products they have had their mail boxes filled by Apple lovers criticizing their objectivity.

So why is it big news that Jobs is taking medical leave now?

First, it is hard to believe that after losing so much weight for so long, Jobs’ highly paid doctors only discovered his problems after the uproar following the Macworld announcement.

Apple’s Board of Directors, which represents the interests of the shareholders, has a obligation to ensure that the “chief man” is able to do the job, or must to spend the sums necessary to ensure he is able to do so. Secondly, the Board has an obligation to insure that all important news regarding the health of the company is made public so the shareholders can act in their best interest.

In my opinion, Jobs did not JUST discover the reason for his illness, and he, and perhaps the Apple Board of Directors, have not been totally forthcoming with information about his health.

****
Why is all this important?

Jobs IS Apple. He has spearheaded every major change Apple has made since his return to the company in 1997. He has driven the rise in the market share of Mac computers; he drove the design of the IPod family and the IPhone.

His iconic personality led to the development of the Mac/IPod/IPhone cult which allows Apple to sell its products at a premium which some analysts believe is unwarranted.

Apple will go on without Jobs until June, but there is no clear successor — his management style insured that — and it is hard for a cult to transfer its loyalty.

Secondly, although Apple has many brilliant technical people, in my opinion, there is no visionary like Jobs who can imagine a need for a product, imagine a product to fill that need, and design such a perfect product that people will pay a premium for it.

In my opinion, Apple will go on, but I seriously wonder if there will there be another revolutionary product from Apple like the Mac computer, the IPod or the IPhone.

********

Update: Friday, January 15

I wrote my entry on Thursday morning; on Friday, the major media hopped on the band wagon:

The Washington Post published an article today detailing the responsibilities that the Board of Directors has regarding Jobs’ health as I discussed. This responsibility was defined in a 1976 US Supreme Court ruling.

CNET, the technology website of CBS, published a long analysis Friday on how Apple supposedly got to the point where Jobs had to take medical leave. CNET professes to have inside information, but misses the crucial 1976 Supreme Court ruling that the Board bore the legal responsibility to reveal information regarding the company if “there is a substantial likelihood that a reasonable shareholder would consider it important.”

Fortune published Friday online a damning analysis of the way in which the major media outlets (the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, CNBC) had reported on Jobs’ illness in the past and includes a link to Wednesday’s now infamous out of control interview that CNBC’s Steve Goldman had with Newsweek’s Dan Lyons (the “Fake Steve Jobs)

As it is early, I expect many more will hop on this band wagon during the day, (However, I suggest you use Google if you want to follow it. As I wrote this, Yahoo had none of these links.)

Peter B. Hayward

Copyright © 2009 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved

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