As I wrote in my blog earlier this week entitled “Iran: Whispers from within the State Department and the Foreign Office,” the word from colleagues in the State Department and the British Foreign Office is that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, cannot let the demonstrations last much longer.
As Supreme Leader, Khamenei, is superior in governmental matters to Ahmadinejad, and just as the Ayatollah declared the election was decided yesterday, the Ayatollah could declare, after the upcoming 10% recount, that Ahmadinejad had lost.
Of course that is hardly likely.
What is known however, according to my whispering colleagues from State and the BFO, is that the the religious leaders in Iran are seriously split over the demonstrations with approximately 1/3 supporting Ahmadinejad, 1/3 Mousavi, and 1/3 undecided or aloof.
This split is critical because the position of Supreme Leader is an elected one, not by the people, of course, but by the Assembly of Experts. This group of 86 Mujtahids (Islamic scholars), could depose Khamenei, especially if the demonstrations are repressed today or over the next few days in a Tiananmen Square horror.
One important wild card regarding the Assembly of Experts is that it is headed by Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, President of Iran from 1989 to 1997, who lost to Ahmadinejad in 2005. Unlike Khamenei, Rafsanjani is a moderate, “support[ing] a centrist position domestically and a moderate position internationally, seeking to avoid conflict with the United States.”
Peter B. Hayward
Social Justice – We need to strive to change what we cannot accept for our all fellow human beings. We do not have the option of silence.
Copyright © 2009 Peter B. Hayward. All Rights Reserved
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